Answer
How much of your estimate backlog is recoverable?
No honest service can hand you a percentage sight unseen. It depends on your ticket size, how fresh the list is, why each estimate stalled, and how fast you call callbacks back. The only real answer is to work a sample against a holdout and measure what actually moved.
If someone promises you "we recover 30% of dead estimates" before they've seen a single row of your data, walk. That number is a sales tool, not a forecast. What's actually recoverable is a function of four things about your specific list.
What moves the number
- Ticket size. A backlog of $8,000 replacements is worth working even at a modest recovery rate. A pile of $200 tune-ups is not. The math has to carry.
- How fresh the list is. Estimates from the last 60 days come back at a higher rate than ones from five months ago. Recency is the single biggest factor.
- Why they stalled. A list full of financing and timing stalls has more life in it than one full of "already bought elsewhere." The mix of objections matters.
- Your callback speed. This is the one you control. A shop that calls recovered leads back the same day gets a different result than one that lets them sit.
The honest way to find out
Stop guessing and measure. Work a real slice of the list, hold back a fifth of it at random, and after thirty days compare the closed jobs in the two groups. The difference is what the work recovered, cleanly separated from the jobs that would have closed on their own. That is a number you can trust, because it came from your list, not a brochure.
The first pass is how you learn your real rate. After that, you know exactly what a backlog is worth to you, and whether to keep doing it.
Why won't anyone give me a recovery percentage upfront?
An honest one depends on your list: ticket size, freshness, why estimates stalled, and callback speed. A firm number quoted before anyone sees your data is marketing.
How do you actually measure recovery?
Hold back a random share, work the rest, and compare closed jobs between the two after 30 days. The gap is the recovery, separate from what would have closed anyway.